AI Eat The World Timeline

How Long Until AI Takes Over The World:
A Historical Analysis

You can’t avoid the hype of Artificial Intelligence.

Probably because a lot of it is real. 

It’s only been a few days since the Chatbot GPT3 opened up to the public and already it’s nothing but...

“Might be the biggest advancement in human history…” - Yahoo Finance

“AI Will change the way that we work and run our businesses.” - Forbes

“AI just reached its very own ‘iPhone moment’…” - Nasdaq.com

It’s interesting stuff that literally hundreds of thousands are already finding useful. 

And it’s only going to grow from there. 

The thing is though, the speed at which the technology will be adapted into work and life processes may take longer than most realize right now. 

And the timing is the key if you’re looking to invest in AI. 

So we’ve put together a timeline of the last time a “better mousetrap” came along to unlock powerful efficiencies in work and life. 

The iPhone Was Not A Moment, But...

Oftentimes the way to look forward with accuracy is to look backwards. 

There are many major disruptive technology corollaries. 

Radio, TV, the Internet, smartphones, etc.

Those are mostly hardware that unlocks innovation. 

This is a case of software.

After all, most already have a computer and web connection, so they can just go from there. 

So the closest comparable for AI adoption will be the rise of Google. 

Google won over the long run by providing a better experience for users. 

AI will surely do the same over time. 

But that doesn’t mean the world doesn't switch right away. 

It takes years. Many years .

Just look at the search engine history and Google’s key market share milestones to see how long it took:
 

1998 (Q4) - Google passes AskJeeves with just under 5% of search engine market share

1999 (Q2) - Google surpasses AOL with market share of more than 7%

1999 (Q4) - Google hits 10% search engine market share and becomes #5 most popular search engine. Yahoo and AltaVista are #1 and #2, respectively.

2000 (Q1) - Google hits 12% market share and surpasses Lycos to #4 search engine

2000 (Q3) - Google hits 14% market share and passes AltaVista on the way to #3 search engine

2002 (Q1) - Google hits 20% market share

2002 (Q2) - Google passes MSN to become #2 search engine behind Yahoo.

2002 (Q4) - Google hits 23% market share and is now #1 search engine

2003 (Q1) - Google extends market share lead. One in four (25%) searches is now on Google

2004 (Q2) - One in three (33%) searches is now on Google

2005 (Q4) - Google hits 46% search engine market share, twice as high as Yahoo still hanging on to 23% search engine market share

2007 (Q1) - Half of all searches are now on Google. 

2008 (Q3) - Google search engine share reaches 60%

That’s a decade or so of Google’s rise. 

And it’s the perfect example of how long it takes for even an obviously superior product to win market share. 

People (a.k.a. users of technology) are creatures of habit. 

Habits take a long time to change. 

Google’s decade rise is a great example. 

Expect similar timelines for AI too.

But you don’t have to believe me…
 

Ask The Expert

Just to be safe, we asked ChatGPT just to be sure:
 

How long before you replace Google?

As a large language model trained by OpenAI, I am not capable of replacing Google or any other search engine.

My purpose is to assist users in generating human-like text based on the input provided to me.

I do not have the ability to browse the internet or access any external information.

Well, then. 

(part of me believes it…for now)