Who Will Swing The Swing States

Who Will Swing The Swing States
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GENDER
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE XX FACTOR

The 2016 election could produce one of the biggest gender gaps of any presidential race. The latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows an even split among men, while Hillary Clinton, the first female nominee of a major party, leads by double digits among women. How much would support among women have to shift to change the outcome?

AGE
AN UNDERWHELMED UNDER-30 ELECTORATE

Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump among young voters, but their greater willingness to consider third-party candidates could cut into that lead. Additionally, polling suggests that interest in the election among this group is below 2012 levels, a fact that could depress turnout. How much would support and turnout have to shift to change the outcome?

RACE
A HISPANIC HIGH POINT?

One of Mr. Trump’s consistent campaign themes has been a promise to build a wall along the southern border and deport illegal immigrants. Those positions have drawn many working-class voters to his candidacy, polling shows, but also have the potential to turn out many more Hispanic voters who oppose Mr. Trump. How much would turnout have to shift to change the outcome?EDUCATION
REPUBLICAN SUPPORT A MATTER OF DEGREES

One of the deepest divides this year is the educational gulf separating white voters. Polling has consistently shown Mr. Trump holding a significant advantage among working-class whites. But he trails Mrs. Clinton among white college graduates. If that holds, Mrs. Clinton would be the first Democrat on record win white voters with four-year college degrees. How much would support have to shift to change the outcome?

For the complete article please visit the Wall Street Journal

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