Private Sector Chasing Fusion Dreams Too

How To Know When Fusion Energy Gets Real

Fusion power.

It’s ok to be skeptical and interested. 

The timeline for fusion power’s development, commercialization, and deployment could easily be decades. 

But its potential is so immense (unlimited, ultra low-cost energy), you don’t want to be quick to cast it off either. 

So that’s our position even after this month. 

It’s on a path to changing the world, but it’s probably too early. 

So we devised a single number to watch (and probably when to start investing) in fusion power. 

Here is the event and how we came up with it.
 

Fusion Power's Real Innovators

Let’s start with the announcement that brought fusion power back into the headlines this month. 

The fusion test plant at Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) facility announced it had achieved fusion “ignition.”

That’s the point where the fusion reaction created more power than was used to create it. 

The government hailed it with especially flowery language. 

The official announcement called it a “major scientific breakthrough decades in the making,” a “landmark achievement,” and how it was a “game changer.”

The highly skeptical fusion nuclear community wasn’t buying it though. 

They were quick to point out the power of the magnets wasn’t included in whether it was a net power gain at all. 

So where’s that leave us?

By out guess, pretty much the same place we were in November. 

Fusion being decades away.

At least for what we call “government” fusion. 

The private sector could actually be much closer to fusion power and that is where we recommend watching for the point where fusion is on the verge of getting real and potentially lucrative for investors.

The Best Bet In Fusion Power (According To Silicon Valley)

There’s been a major surge in fusion development over the last few years - both public and private. 

Machine learning, AI, and other advancements  which can accelerate engineering and development timelines are playing major roles in bringing fusion power to the world. 

The thing is though, we don’t expect the major innovation to come from these massive government-funded and managed facilities though. 

Because if we go back to the Lawrence Livermore National Lab breakthrough, we see it may or may not have been big, but we do know it was late. 

Only-in-the-government level of late. 

This facility was targeting this event in 2012. 

Of course, we get it. This is advanced science. A few years either way is defensible.

But at this rate there was no risk of it being early either. 

And it’s just one example. 

The ITER fusion project, located in France, is probably the largest and best funded publicly known joint venture of seven governments. 

ITER is a $22 billion (current estimate - you know the costs are going to be way higher).

According to ITER’s own projection, it won’t see “ignition” moment until 2025. 

Well, that was the initial forecast.

They’ve already pushed that back to 2027. 

Again, we won’t ding them for lateness in this type of work. But we will note it was not early. 

And that’s why we don’t expect much innovation from these massive government-backed fusion development efforts. 

These labs have huge budgets, facilities, and staff to create technological breakthroughs. 

What they lack is speed. 

That’s why we look to the private sector to see real innovation. 

One of those private sector fusion companies is Helion Energy. 

Helion made headlines in 2021 when it inked a $500 million funding deal which would grow to $2.2 billion after certain milestones are hit. 

Helion has a real shot at commercializable fusion power.

First off, despite being founded in 2013 (a year after the Lawrence Livermore facility forecasted its latest milestone), Helion is already achieved fusion power. 

Although it took more power to get the fusion reaction than the power created from it, Helion provides a potential key point for investors to get in on fusion power. 
 

The Number We're Watching In Fusion Energy

Helion is currently using the 6th generation fusion power plant (with the 7th on the way soon).

Each new generation of its generation gets bigger, more powerful, and more efficient. 

And it’s through how its fusion reactors work that shows us how close to the commercialization and ideal investment stage we’re getting on power. 

You see, the 6th generation Helion fusion reactor is able to create a fusion moment every 10 minutes.

That’s how long it takes to charge up its plasma generators, run through the fusion process, and start over again. 

That will never be fast enough to generate enough power for commercialization. 

So the key will be when these cycles are down to a few seconds between the fusion processes. 

That’s when you know you are reaching something real, sustainable, and potentially economical. 

So that’s the number we’re watching. 

In conclusion, fusion will be an engineering and capital problem, eventually. 

It may be at that point or it will be soon. 

This is a quick way to set aside the noise and be ready for when it really hits.