Bad news for Trump supporters.
The house always wins.
Blackjack. Roulette. Craps. Baccarat.
The house always wins at these games over time.
The one place the house doesn’t always win -- even though it still is largely profitable over time -- is in sports betting markets.
In sports betting the house only always wins when it is just making a market.
For example, on a straight up 50/50 line, they give $90 for a $100 winning bet and take $100 on a $100 losing bet.
The $10 is the profit from accepting both bets.
That’s why we’ve noticed an anomaly in the sportsbook betting markets (which also take bets on politics where it’s legal) that point to a stronger than expected case for Biden winning the election.
This is probably the strongest Biden win indicator you will ever seen.
Bigly Bets On Biden
The single greatest annual sports betting event in the United States is the Super Bowl.
Last year there was $154.6 million in bets placed at Las Vegas sports books according to ESPN.
The profit for the sports books was $18.7 million, or about 12% of total volume of bets.
The higher profits above the normal spread of making the market is because the sports book “picked a side” on the Super Bowl.
It paid off too.
This happens almost every year.
The professional sports bettors running the sports books know far more about the betting markets and odds than the regular bettors.
Just like professional investors vs individual investors.
That’s why they almost always take a somewhat lopsided bet to spike the profit a few million dollars over what they would make otherwise.
They just don’t make a market where they’ll profit either way. They intentionally choose sides to a small degree to boost profits a bit.
Here’s where that comes in for the election.
If you look at Oddschecker, a top site that tracks betting odds for the largest European sports betting sites, you’ll see quite an anomaly.
The betting market for president is historically tipped to Biden relative to the actual odds.
Check this breakdown of how a massive $260 million in total bets have been placed so far:
The strong favorite among bettors is Trump.
The total Trump wagers are about twice as much as Biden and more than half of all the bets.
Biden, meanwhile, is only about one fourth of the total wagers placed.
This should make Trump the strong favorite because the books would want to minimize risk.
In this case, Trump should be about 1 out of 2 and Biden should be at least 2-to-1.
However, the odds are totally flipped.
The average current odds for Trump are 15/8 (which means a $100 bet would pay out $287.50).
Biden is at 13/25 (a $100 bet would pay out only $152).
That makes Biden the favorite and Trump the underdog.
This is quite an anomaly because of the potential payouts for the betting sites.
For example, based on current wagers of $260 million, if the odds stay the same and Trump wins, they’re going to have to pay back out all of the $260 million wagers plus some based on.
But if Biden wins, they’re only going to have to pay out about three-eighths of the total betting amount.
We estimate they will have to pay out $103 million and pocket the leftover $157 million as a massive, one-sided profit.
Rarely will betting sites take on this kind of risk.
Like in the last Super Bowl, they tilted the odds a bit to make 12% instead of the 10% for just making a standard market.
In this case, they’re practically betting it all on Biden.
This is a huge anomaly that should raise serious doubts to anyone who thinks Trump has this in the bag.
You should be asking yourself what do they know?
Don’t Bet Against Biden
Right now there are many indicators of which way the election is going to head.
Depending on your media sources, you could see it as a lock either way.
If it's the mainstream polls, you see Biden all the way.
If you're looking at early voting in key states, it looks the exact opposite.
In this case, we’re looking at the most accurate and ruthless bettors in the world.
They are betting -- and betting big -- on a Biden win.
That should raise a major flag for all investors getting positioned for another Trump upset.
Good investing,
Dynamic Wealth Research Staff
