The U.S. likely wouldn’t feel the impact evenly, however, with certain industries and states having a greater reliance undocumented workers. California would be the hardest-hit state, since removing unauthorized workers would lead to a 4 percent drop in private-sector output in the short term, or about $83 billion. Texas and New York would experience the second- and third-largest economic drops, witnessing 10-year declines of $51 billion and $33 billion in output, respectively, the authors calculate.
“The economic contribution to U.S. GDP of the current unauthorized workers is substantial,” the researchers wrote. “Unauthorized workers may be responsible for 8 to 9 percent of the value-added in agriculture, construction, and leisure and hospitality.”
While that seems dire, the research comes with a major caveat: It assumes that workers from other segments of the economy wouldn’t take the jobs left vacant by the deported immigrants. It’s likely that some Americans and legal immigrants would take on those roles, shifting between industries and jobs to secure new opportunities, although it’s unclear how much appeal those vacant jobs would hold for legal and native-born workers.
Trump’s position on immigration has been formed by the view that undocumented workers are taking wages and jobs away from native-born and legal workers. But policy experts note that his focus on immigration comes at a time when the share of undocumented workers is declining. While the American labor force, comprised of people born in the U.S. or who immigrated legally, has expanded by 2.2 percent since 2009, the number of illegal immigrants has declined from 8.1 million to 8 million over the same time.
It’s also unclear whether unauthorized workers are taking jobs away from Americans. Even within the occupations with the largest shares of undocumented workers -- such as farm laborers, roofers and maintenance workers -- the majority of jobs are filled by native-born workers and legal immigrants.
In an interview with “60 Minutes,” Trump said he would immediately deport 2 million to 3 million undocumented immigrants, whom he said are “criminal and have criminal records, gang members, drug dealers.” As for the remaining undocumented workers, Trump said he would figure that out after the border is “secure.”
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